Investment Ideas

QUBT is a speculative bubble trading at 40x revenue with unproven technology facing inevitable competition from tech giants. The bear case is overwhelmingly compelling with 60-80% downside likely.

AMLX is a terminal value trap where failed ALS mechanism makes Alzheimer's success highly improbable, while cash burn ensures steady value destruction toward liquidation.

BlackRock is a high-quality technology platform masquerading as an asset manager, trading at a discount due to cyclical concerns while regulatory risks are manageable and overblown.

CME is a franchise monopoly with genuine network effects trading at deep value multiples due to temporary headwinds. SOFR transition and rate normalization create multi-year tailwinds for 20%+ annual returns.

Quality compounder trading at temporary discount due to margin pressures that will reverse as wage inflation moderates and operational leverage kicks in from digital transformation and unit growth.

AB InBev is a leveraged value trap in structural decline. Debt burden unsustainable amid secular beer consumption decline and rising rates. Short opportunity with 30-40% downside.

Brookfield is a best-in-class asset manager trading at a significant discount due to temporary headwinds, with multiple catalysts for 65-88% upside as fundraising normalizes and operational excellence drives superior returns.

AppLovin is a high-quality platform business trading at gaming multiples, with durable competitive moats and secular growth tailwinds creating 100%+ upside potential despite near-term headwinds.

MMC is a high-quality franchise with durable moats trading at reasonable multiples, offering 25-35% upside as markets recognize its transformation into a knowledge-economy platform with recurring revenues.

BAM is a high-quality asset manager trading at a discount to intrinsic value, with defensive fee income and multiple catalysts for value realization over 18-36 months.

WM is a high-quality monopolistic franchise temporarily mispriced due to cyclical headwinds. Asset value provides downside protection while pricing power drives margin recovery over 24-36 months.

Midea represents a high-quality global appliance leader trading at deep discount due to China bias, offering 100%+ upside as competitive advantages and emerging market exposure drive sustained growth.

EPD is a high-quality infrastructure monopoly trading at distressed valuations due to energy transition fears, offering 8%+ yield with defensive cash flows that should persist for decades.

SigmaRoc is a value trap disguised as a consolidation play - facing peak cycle multiples, diminishing acquisition targets, and structural industry headwinds that will drive significant value destruction.

RCL is a quality franchise business trading at cyclical valuations, offering 60-80% upside as normalized earnings power becomes apparent and multiple expansion occurs over 12-18 months.

QQQ's quality narrative masks dangerous overvaluation at 22x forward P/E for mature businesses facing regulatory headwinds, slowing growth, and multiple compression risk in a higher-rate environment.

KORU is a value trap disguised as a growth story - small scale, aging technology, and intensifying competition from larger players make this a compelling short despite superficial cheapness.

PESI is a value trap disguised as a monopoly - regulatory moats are eroding, decommissioning timeline is misunderstood, and disposal alternatives are expanding rapidly.

IonQ represents speculative exposure to quantum computing with meaningful downside risks outweighing uncertain upside potential in an unproven market with extended commercialization timelines.

ELSE appears to be a value trap facing technological disruption. While statistically cheap, the business model is becoming obsolete as wireless IoT sensors replace specialized point sensors.